The volume of sugarcane processed from the beginning of the current harvest until mid-November in South-Central Brazil, the country’s top cane producing region, reached 471.5 million tons – a gain of 7.5% compared to the same period in the previous harvest. But despite the increase in volume, the total quantity of products obtained from the processed cane was only 0.51% higher than in the same period a year ago.

Total recoverable sugars (known as ATR in Portuguese) obtained per ton of cane remained low, mainly because of intense rainfall since June, which has been favoring the vegetative growth of the plant, but not the all-important concentration of sucrose. The trend continued during the first half of November and resulted in an ATR of 127.94 Kg, a level 7.5% below the 138.32 Kg reached in the same period in the previous harvest, and 0.5% less than the 128.52 Kg observed during the previous two-week period (second half of October).

The volume of processed cane in the second half of November totaled 28.9 million tons, 4.3% behind the total for the previous two-week period but 11.14% above the total for the same period in the previous harvest. The accumulated quantity of products obtained from processed cane from the start of the harvest reached 132.32 Kg on November 16, 6.5% less than the amount obtained during the same period of the previous harvest.

Of the total amount of cane processed during the first half of November, 56.55% went to ethanol production, yielding 1.217 billion liters of ethanol. Of that, 440 million liters were anhydrous and 777 million liters hydrated ethanol. Sugar production for the period totaled 1.531 million tons.

These numbers confirm the difficulty in producing sugar during the final third of the harvest, as well as the progress in anhydrous ethanol production in comparison with hydrated, a trend observed since the start of October. During the first half of October, production of anhydrous ethanol represented 31.7% of total ethanol production, a share that grew to 36.2% by the second half of November. Sugar production absorbed 46.45% of all processed cane in South-Central Brazil in the first half of October, a figure that fell to 43.45% of the harvested cane by the first half of November.

As of November 16, accumulated ethanol production from the start of the harvest reached 20.4 billion liters, while sugar totaled 26.2 million tons.  

Ethanol market

Ethanol prices in recent weeks reflect the product’s reduced availability as the current harvest draws to an end, with persistent rains making it difficult to harvest and leading to lower ATR indexes. This combination of factors has impacted prices and reduced sales of hydrated ethanol during the first half of November.

Total sales to the domestic market in the period reached 651 million liters, 14.5% less than the sales volume in the first half of the previous month. From the start of the harvest to the end of September, the average increase in hydrated ethanol sales to the domestic market was 23.5% over last year’s volume in the same period. The figure fell to 17.7% in the second half of October and dropped even further, to 13.5%, in the first half of November.

The total volume of ethanol sold by mills in South-Central Brazil during the first half of November reached 976 million liters, of which 884 million went to the domestic market and 92 million were exported. For the next few months, ethanol exports are not expected to reach significant levels because of current unattractive domestic x foreign price parity levels. Accumulated sales of ethanol since the beginning of the harvest reached 14.7 billion liters for the domestic market and 2.4 billion liters for export by November 16.

The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA) projects that anhydrous ethanol production will remain at appropriate levels, to ensure that there is sufficient ethanol for Brazil’s 25% blend level into gasoline, without need to adjust blend levels. Variations in hydrated ethanol prices in the past weeks are seasonal oscillations, caused mainly by the impact of unexpected rains on harvest performance since June. The market has already begun to adjust, with demand for hydrated ethanol beginning to head downward in November.

For comparative figures for the November 1 to 16 period, click here.